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Lessons · Teaching · what follows, and what merely sounds sensible

What must follow, not what probably would

An inference question asks what the passage commits its author to, without saying it outright. The answer is something that must be true if the passage is true. It is not the most likely continuation, not the sensible next step, and not what a reasonable person would also think.

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What it is for

Inference is where strong general knowledge becomes a liability. A well-read candidate fills gaps with what they know, which is exactly the wrong move, because the wrong options are built out of what a well-read person would helpfully supply. The skill is staying inside the passage while reasoning past its surface.

How to think about it

Rephrase each option as a claim and ask: could the passage be true and this option false? If yes, it is not an inference. Look for the option that is modest. Inference answers are usually smaller and more hedged than the ones that feel insightful, because a small claim is harder to escape.

Worked example

Passage: the town's only bakery closed and bread sales at the supermarket rose
It must follow that people got bread elsewhere. It does not follow that the bakery closed because of the supermarket.
An option beginning 'the author would probably agree' still needs the passage behind it
Probably is not a licence. Find the sentence that commits them.
Test by contradiction: can the passage be true and this option false?
If yes, drop it. This single question sorts the family faster than any amount of rereading.
The modest option usually wins over the striking one
'Some residents changed where they shop' survives. 'The supermarket drove the bakery out' does not.

Your turn

Name the test that sorts a real inference from a plausible one.

Ask whether the passage could be true and the option 

The trap

Choosing the option you agree with. On a passage about an arguable subject, the option that matches your own view will feel like it follows. Your agreement is not evidence about the passage, and the test writers choose arguable subjects partly because of this.

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